F-35 JSF: See No Evil, Hear No Evil, Do No Good
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Air Power
Australia - Australia's Independent Defence Think Tank
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Air Power Australia NOTAM
24th
March, 2010
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| Contacts: |
Peter
Goon
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Carlo
Kopp |
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Mob:
0419-806-476 |
Mob:
0437-478-224 |
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The
Minister for Defence,
Senator the Hon John Faulkner, recently released the following
statement about the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) project commenting
on
the announcement that the project would trigger
the Nunn-McCurdy Amendment in
the United States, which requires the
Secretary of Defense to re-certify the need for JSF Program-of-Record
and justify such increases in cost against such a need. Such a
breach also requires a congressional investigation into the cost
increases.
Unfortunately
for the Australian Department of Defence and the Minister, the media
statement only serves to highlight the basic flaws in the
Department’s approach to the procurement of major defence projects.
Interleaved
in the Minister's statement below are comments on this statement.
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F-35 Joint
Strike Fighter program - right choice for the Australian Defence
Force
Friday,
Mar 12, 2010
Source: Australian Government
The Minister
for
Defence,
Senator John Faulkner, today confirmed that the Government remains
confident the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is the right choice for
the Australian Defence Force's next-generation air combat capability,
and will enable the Australian Defence Force to maintain its
strategic air combat capability advantage out to 2030.
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Not only do Air Power Australia believe that this statement is untrue
but so do a wide range of other air power analysts. The JSF is not only
inferior to the threats it would face in our region from now out to
beyond 2030 but it also highly likely to be overmatched both in terms
of numbers and the incumbent capabilities resident in our region. If
confronted in any conflict, the inevitable conclusion would be that the
RAAF will get - in the vernacular - ‘clobbered’ [1].
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Responding to the recent
developments in the JSF program, Senator Faulkner noted that the JSF
program would produce over 3000 aircraft for United States (US)
Services and international partners. Senator Faulkner said, "As
with all highly complex and cutting edge projects, risks are to be
expected."
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The planned number of aircraft may be over 3000 but no one expects this
number to be built. Even the US GAO is skeptical[2].
The reference to risks is appropriate. The JSF project is one of the
most risk laden projects we have ever embarked upon. There is still a
very high level of risk that the project will fail. This has been
reported in many publications
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"As I said on 2
February 2010, the Australian Government's staged acquisition
strategy for the JSF includes significant cost and schedule buffers
to deal with project risks which will ensure initial operational
capability in 2018 is met."
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‘Significant
cost and schedule buffers’ What does
this mean? Nothing in our estimation. There is nothing Australia
can do that will speed up the already much delayed program so that
any buffer Defence build in is meaningless. What it probably means
is that Australia will accept earlier aircraft in the production
program and thus be stuck with early capability limited aircraft to
add to the already inferior 14 low rate production aircraft Defence
have gained approval to order. Initial ‘real’ operational
capability in 2018 on current progress is not believable. Moreover
real cost pressures in the near future will inevitably lead to
reduced numbers of JSF’s purchased for Australia. On current plans,
including the less than capable 24 x Super Hornet buy, Australia is
now staring down the barrel of an air combat capability gap yawning
out for some 15 to 30 plus years.
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"Defence will continue
to maintain close and regular contact with the US to ensure the
success of this vital project."
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Let’s hope this is true but the evidence to date does not give us any
confidence that Defence or the DMO have been keeping a close eye on the
project till now.
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As a result of the latest US
JSF cost update, US Defense Under Secretary Acquisition, Technology
and Logistics, Dr Ashton Carter has told the United States Senate
Armed Services Committee that he expected the F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter Program to experience a Nunn-McCurdy funding breach.
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Such a breach has been
predicted by Air Power Australia for some years now. It has been
obvious to those monitoring the project.
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Nunn-McCurdy is US
legislation which requires Congressional review of major projects
when growth in an acquisition program's cost estimates exceeds
specific thresholds. In the case of the JSF Program, the
Nunn-McCurdy breach involves growth in estimated costs for the
program exceeding 50 per cent since 2002.
The thorough review now
required will be a continuation of the restructuring process
announced by Secretary Gates on 1 February 2010 in expectation of a
Nunn-McCurdy breach.
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This statement confirms the
widely held view that the restructuring announced by Secretary Gates
was driven only by a desire to get out in front of the Congressional
review mandated under the Nunn-McCurdy breach. It was forced on the US
Defense Department [DOD] by the imminent Congressional review. It is
doubtful if any restructuring would have been undertaken if the
Nunn-McCurdy breach could have been avoided.
The statement that the Congressional review would only add to the Gates
restructure misses the whole point of a Congressional review. It is
independent of the Department and could possibly reverse some of the
changes proposed. Be sure the Department and Secretary Gates are not
looking forward to this review – such reviews have previously proven to
be bitter medicine for the project sponsors as project shortcomings are
put on public display.
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Senator Faulkner also
said,
"The JSF Program Office advises that no significant implications
are expected for the JSF Partner countries as a result of the
Nunn-McCurdy breach due to the restructuring action which has already
been taken in the US.
"The adoption of a more
conservative budgeting approach by the US Department of Defense for
the JSF Program - particularly for early aircraft where cost risk is
highest - is a sound management approach for such a large and complex
project.
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This is code for pay less earlier and pay much more later – a common
program manager's ploy to limit or counter criticism.
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"Australian Defence
planning has always adopted a cautious approach to JSF cost estimates
by factoring in significant amounts of contingency funds to deal with
cost risks," Senator Faulkner said.
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The Minister and the Department have let the cat out of the bag with
this statement The US DOD and Lockheed Martin would be over the moon at
the following quote from the Minister’s statement:
‘by factoring in significant
amounts of contingency funds to deal with cost risks’
This is ‘code for we are prepared to pay up to the full government
authorization for the project’ - some A$16B – including all the
contingency. The implication also is that if this is not enough, the
Department will go back for more money. This is nothing more than a
blank cheque for Lockheed-Martin - and their executives must be rubbing
their hands together with glee. Be assured Lockheed-Martin will cash
that cheque. However this promise of unlimited expenditure does not
guarantee a viable or operationally acceptable aircraft in the long
run. In fact strong indications to date suggest that Australia will get
neither in the F-35 JSF.
The above media release and
incumbent Ministerial statements epitomise the lack of Defence and
Government understanding of the seriousness of the parlous state into
which the JSF has developed. Blindly following the US DOD in this
project is a recipe for disaster. It is now time for a serious
independent external review of this very risky project and of the
decisions made in the Government, the Defence Department and
particularly in the DMO which have led us to this perilous situation.
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Notes
2 Refer the following:
- http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-191109-1.html
- http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-170809-1.html
- http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-290309-1.html
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Air
Power
Australia
Website - http://www.ausairpower.net/
Air Power Australia Research and
Analysis - http://www.ausairpower.net/research.html
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